Charts of Interest

October 29, 2023, iShares MSCI World Index ETF. Several potential technical support levels on the daily candle chart of the URTH have given way to the downside over the past two weeks. A week ago, last Wednesday the URTH broke below support at the Median Line (purple dotted line) of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork (purple P1 through P3). Over the next two trading sessions the URTH extended its losses giving birth to a second shorter-term Standard Pitchfork (gold P1 through P3). Last Thursday the URTH broke support at the Median Line of that Pitchfork and on Friday the URTH closed at a new 7-month low at 115.01. MACD and the “first turn” Fisher Transform continue to track lower. My Developed Markets Country ETF daily Momentum / Breadth Oscillator has reached a level that has led to counter trend rallies in the past, but I need a firmer reversal signal to declare that is about to happen despite the oversold conditions reflected on the weekly charts before I will stick my neck out.

October 18, 2023 S&P 500 Equal Weight Index. Only a short term pause in the counter trend rally. The Upper Parallel (solid purple line) of the Schiff Pitchfork (purple P1 through P3), price resistance at the 5,825 level and the Kijun Plot (green line) has capped the rally from the Oct. 6th P3 low. The Schiff Pitchfork has thus far contained the three-wave decline from the July high. The very short-term price pattern strikes me as accumulation fortifying an underlying bid. I believe that with the recent positive price momentum as witnessed by MACD and the turn in the Fisher Transform that odds favor that the current counter trend rally has legs. That said we are closely watching key short-term support at the 5,695 level and the P3 low (5,575), a break of which would negate my technical thesis.

September 29,2023 As prices made their way lower to the confluence of support offered by the Lower Parallel (solid purple line) of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork (purple P1 through P3) and the level at which Wave C would equal Wave A the MC Daily Momentum / Breadth Oscillator reach the oversold band and a rally unfolded in concert with the full moon. That shift in price Momentum has driven the Oscillator back above the shorter- term moving average. I am not surprised that counter-trend price move stalled this morning at previous support which has now turned into short-term resistance. I still believe that odds favor an initial challenge of the Median Line (purple dotted line) of the Pitchfork and potentially the Kijun Plot (green line) at 4,390 which is the midpoint between the highest high and lowest low over the past 26 days.

September 23, 2023 After breaking Clould support in the middle of last month Link found price support at the 5.75 level and has rallied over the past two weeks. When prices returned to the Cloud I drew the new Schiff Modified Pitchfork (gold P1 through P3). That variation of Pitchfork marks the price vector better than the Standard or Schiff Variation. LINK is currently challenging resistance at the top of the Cloud. MACD and the Fisher Transform both suggest that there are better than even odds that prices will advance above the Cloud and will make a run at the Median Line (gold dotted line). The lower panel in the chart reflects the improving relative strength vs. the CCi30 Index as it does in the RRG chart that follows.

September 22, 2023 I continue to be of the technical opinion that lower prices are ahead of us. The prices action from the late July highs strikes me as a developing Elliott Wave A-B-C decline. Both of Pring’s multi-time frame momentum and trend oscillators suggest that lower prices are in the cards. I believe that at the very least that support at the Lower Parallel (solid gold line) of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork (gold P1 through P3) will be tested.

September 19, 2023 S&P 500 Index, Support at the Kijun Plot (green dotted line that marks the mid-point of the highest high and lowest low over the past 26 days) and the Lower Parallel (solid gold line) of the Standard Pitchfork (gold P1 through P3) gave way this morning. This leaves the Median Line (purple dotted line) of the shorter-term Schiff Modified Pitchfork (purple P1 through P3) and the lower Cloud Span as the next potential support level (highlighted with yellow circle). The Daily Momentum / Breadth Oscillator confirms the move lower as does MACD. Only a recovery rally before the close of trading would alter my technical thesis that lower prices in the large cap index can be expected.

September 15, 2023 There is technically nothing that suggests that multi-month downtrend in the Japanese Yen has run its course. Prices have remained firmly in the confines of Schiff Modified Pitchfork (gold P1 through P3). The secondary technical indicators applied to the chart below actually supports the thesis that price resistance at the 148.85 will only be a temporary roadblock. The Fisher Transform is tracking higher above it signal line as is Pring’s Special K. For those unfamiliar with Special K, it combines short, intermediate and longer-term momentum into one complete series. That said, we are keeping an eye on Median Line support (gold dotted line). If that support is violated then there may be some backing and filling in the cards but that would not change my longer-term technical thesis.

September 12, 2023 Since the initial price downdraft in the DAX Index from late July price pivot high (purple P3) that broke support at the Median line (purple dotted line) of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork (purple P1 through P3) and the break of Cloud support at “the twist” in the Cloud the DAX has been trading sideways beneath the Cloud but for all intents and purposes support at the Lower Parallel (solid purple line) has acted a support. The lack of price momentum in either direction as witnessed by MACD and a near neutral reading in my Daily Momentum / Breadth Oscillator leaves nary a clue as to how the current stasis will be resolved. Only a breakout of the 1 ½ month trading range will indicate resolution. My bet is that the trading range is a continuation pattern that will be followed by lower prices.

September 9, 2023 Aside from the intra week short squeeze higher two weeks ago there has been very little of technical note in the CCi30 Index over the past three weeks. Trading volume has been muted since prices broke lower in the middle of last month. MACD reflects the lack of momentum in either direction. The index remains trapped below the Lower Warning Line (gold dashed line) of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork (gold P1-P3) and key price support at the 6,580 level. There has very little movement in the Sweet Sixteen Total Technical Ranking (SSTTR) although it moved higher last week by +28.74% to 215 from 167. Although the 13-Week Exponential Moving Average of the SSTTR continues to track lower, I feel compelled to remind readers of the old adage, “never short a dull market”.

September 5, 2023 Two weeks ago, the selloff in the EEM found support at the Lower Warning Line (gold dashed line labeled LWL) of the Schiff Pitchfork (gold P1-P3) and short-term rally unfolded. It was not a surprise that the Lower Warning Line held as support as it was in concert with my EM Country ETF Daily Momentum / Breadth Oscillator reaching a deeply oversold condition. That oversold level led to a rally in March as well. That price pivot gave birth to the new shorter-term Schiff Modified Pitchfork (purple P1-P3). For all intents and purposes, thus far the rally has stalled at the underside of the Schiff Pitchfork (solid gold line), the Median Line of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork (purple dashed line) and the bottom of the Cloud. Additional resistance will be found at the Kijun Plot (green line) at 40.10. The Kijun Plot is the mid-point between the highest high and the lowest low over the past 26 days. All of these technical features will make a continuation of the rally “a tough road to hoe”.

August 29, 2023 I am not willing to argue with impulsive rallies and that is what we witnessed in the broader crypto market yesterday as measured by the CCi30 Index. But at the risk of pissing off the bulls I will need to see positive follow through. That said, the sharp drop in the index on August 16th managed to hold the Median Line (purple dotted line) of the Standard Pitchfork (purple P1-P3) and since then (with help from yesterday’s 4.59% short squeeze rally driven by the Greyscale news) both MACD and the Fisher Transform have turned higher through their signal lines but there is formidable resistance ahead. There is a confluence of resistance at the medium (green line) and longer term (blue line) moving averages at 7,820, the Price Activity Band (grey rectangle) and the Upper Parallel (solid purple line) of the Standard Pitchfork. Patience is the key word and don’t let the FOMO devil take control.

August 27, 2023 On Thursday of last week the SPX started the trading session by attempting to extend a four day counter trend rally from the recent lows but resistance at the Median Line (purple dotted line) of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork (purple P1-P3) capped the early rally attempt and prices traded sharply lower into the end of the day down -59.70 points or -1.35% producing what is known in Candlestick parlance as an Engulfing Candle that is considered a strong negative price reversal. Although downside momentum slowed as a result of the four-day counter trend rally, MACD remains under its signal line in negative territory. My US ETF Daily Momentum / Breadth Oscillator has turned higher over that period from the deeply oversold reading registered the previous week but the SPX is not out of the woods yet considering Friday’s feeble bounce. First resistance remains at the Median Line and second is the Kijun Plot which is at 4,470. Only a rally that retakes the ground above the Cloud and first and second resistance would suggest that the P3 low is more than a short term low.

August 25, 2023 There is absolutely nothing positive to be said about this chart and it’s not just yesterday’s nasty engulfing candle after a failure to retake the ground above broken Lower Parallel (solid gold line) of the Standard Pitchfork and the Kijun Plot (solid green line. Martin Pring’s Special K tells a story of abominable multiple time frame downside momentum. “It isn’t over till the fat lady sings” and she hasn’t even gotten to the theater yet!

August 23, 2023 There are several technical features on the Daily Candlestick Chart that suggest that the rally from the August 15th low has further to run. Silver is rallying sharply today (currently up $0.89 to $24.30) The impulsive rally overtook out potential resistance at the Kijun Plot (solid green line), has punched through the Cloud just ahead of the twist and the Median Line (gold dotted line) of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork (gold P1-P3). When silver prices bottomed and pivoted higher it was in concert with a non-confirmation of Brown’s Composite Index (higher low noted with green dashed line) when RSI traded to a new low. Silver is now posed to challenge resistance at the Upper Parallel of the Pitchfork (gold solid line) which comes in at the $25.35 / $25.40 level.

August 15,2023 I would keep my powder dry even though prices are entering an area of support confluence at the lower Warning Line (purple dashed line) of the Schiff Pitchfork (purple P1-P3), the price pivot support at 4,395 and the Cloud model. Although the Daily Momentum / Breadth Oscillator (SPXDMO) hasn’t fallen to a new low it is well above the March lows that signaled an oversold rally. Only a rally that retakes the ground above the Lower Parallel (solid purple lie) and a follow through above TDST resistance at 4,550 would suggest that the price pullback has run its course.  

August 12, 2023 The CCi30 Index remains capped by the Upper Warning Line (purple dashed line) of the Standard Pitchfork (purple P1 through P3) and the underside of the Lower Parallel (solid gold line) of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork (gold P1 through P3). The SSTTR bounced off the flattening 13-Week Moving Average (red line). For the past four weeks the index has been trading quietly sideways with little price momentum as witnessed by MACD. Readers should remember the adage “Never short a dull market”. I continue to believe that the price action since last May continues to be a base building process. Only a violation of key price pivot support at the 6,580 level would have me second guessing that technical thesis.

August 10, 2023 Looks to me like the USD Index (DXY) is starting to roll over from the cluster of resistance at the Upper Parallel (solid gold line) of the shorter-term Schiff Modified Pitchfork (gold P1-P3), the underside of the broken Lower Parallel of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork (purple P1-P3) and the Cloud. Watch support at the Kijun Plot (101.60) and the Median Line (gold dotted line).

August 3, 2023 The support levels I am watching to reveal whether a correction of a larger degree is unfolding is first TDST support at 4,465 and second key support at the rising 50-day moving average and the bottom parallel of both the shorter term and longer term Lower Parallels of the two Standard Pitchforks (currently 4,360).

August 2, 2023 I have been asked countless times why I expand Pitchforks to include Warning Lines. The reason is easy to see in the chart below. Median Line Analysis AKA Andrews Pitchforks are used define the angle or vector of price trends. Often, even though a Lower Parallel, in the first case of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork (red P1 through P3) is violated a Lower Warning Line (red LWL, red dash line) will act as price support (first yellow circle). In the second case the Upper Parallel (solid gold Line) of the Standard Pitchfork (gold P1 through P3) was overtaken in middle of last month and the CCi30 Index broke out above the Cloud Model but the Upper Warning Line (gold UWL, gold dashed line) capped the advance (second yellow circle). In turn, these price reversals mark important price pivots that need to be respected as future support and resistance as noted with horizontal lines.

July 30, 2023 There is a touch more to be technically positive about in the above Candlestick Cloud Chart. Prices have held above the Kijun Plot (green solid line) since moving back into the Cloud in late-June. The Average Sweet Sixteen Technical Ranking “ASSTR” held support at the long term moving average (blue line) and the shorter term moving average (red line) of the Average Technical Ranking is tracking higher. We continue to mark key resistance at 9,320 and only a breakout with follow through would suggest the base building process has run its course.

July 26, 2023 Away from arguments that the NASDAQ 100 Index may be beginning to be fundamentally over-valued it would have been a mistake to exit longs considering the constructive uptrend that has been in place since mid-March. The vector of that uptrend has been mirrored by the Schiff Modified Pitchfork that found its genesis at the Monday March 13th low and was drawn up to the April 4th high and back down to the swing low on April 25th. Those pivots (P1 through P3) are not shown on the shortened 75-Day Candle Chart but nonetheless the Pitchfork that was created using them remains a viable marker of the trend (as does the Cloud model). Since the start of June prices have remained confined within the boundaries of the Sliding Parallel (gold SP) and the Median Line of the Pitchfork. Unless prices drop below the Median Line and the Kijun Plot (green dotted line at 15,315) in concert with a follow through to the downside and a violation of the Lower Parallel (solid gold line) it would be premature to suggest that the 4-month rally has reached its terminus and a correction of a larger degree was unfolding.

January 12, 2023: I for one are not willing to argue with the move in the Euro, strong uptrend (yellow dashed line), above initial Cloud resistance and strong price momentum. First targeting 50% retracement and final Cloud resistance. Through there 1.1234 will be in the Bulls crosshairs. Then expect some backing and filling.

January 5, 2023: I can't escape the feeling that the box drawn around the sideways price pattern in the E-Mini (yellow) is not just a box but is really a coffin getting ready to be lowered into the ground. We will see what happens after the NFP print tomorrow.

January 5,2023: The DAX has a strong wind at its back! After holding Cloud support, it overtook resistance at the Kijun Plot (green line) and is approaching price and TDST Resistance at 14,590. Technical odds favor the breakout but how far after that will it extend as it becomes more overbought?

November 30, 2022: The NASDAQ 100 key support levels (yellow circle) are soon to be tested. Median Line (gold dotted line), the Kijun Plot (solid green line) at 11,330 and the bottom of the Cloud.. The “lows are in” crowd should be concerned with the double non-confirmation (yellow dashed lines) of the Markets Compass Daily Momentum Oscillator.

November 21, 2022: Scalpers should pay heed to resistance at the Kijun Plot which has capped any advance since last Wednesday and support at the Lower Parallel (solid gold line) of the Standard Pitchfork (gold P1-P3) and support at the top of the Cloud. MACD giving nary a clue as to price direction bias.

November 18, 2022: Too early to tell but there is a potential Daily Momentum non-conformation of the price highs at P3 similar to the set-up at the August P1 high (see MC Transports Daily Momentum lower panel). A break of key support at the Kijun Plot (green line) and the Cloud at 13.650 would confirm the start of a larger correction.

November 16, 2022: The rally in the Euro since the late September lows is currently being capped (yellow circle) at the Upper Warning Lines of the Schiff (red P1-P3) and the Schiff Modified (gold P1-P3) “Dueling Pitchforks”. After last Thursday’s and Friday’s push higher a pause to refresh was in order.

November 3, 2022:The Emini is at a critical confluence of support at the Median Line (Gold dotted Line highlighted with yellow circle) of the Standard Pitchfork (gold P1-P3) and the Kijun Span (green Line which marks the midpoint (50%) of the lowest low and highest high over the past 26 days.

October 31, 2022: The +9.06% rally that found its genesis at the October 13th intra-day reversal low was capped by price and Fibonacci retrace (50%) resistance of the August / October leg lower. The Cloud will now also come into play and the Markets Compass Daily Momentum Oscillator has reached an overbought extreme making it likely that at the very least a pause to refresh or price pullback is in order. The depth of that potential price retracement will be a key clue as to the remaining underlying strength of the short-term rally.

October 19, 2022: I see absolutely nothing that would suggest that the Japanese Yen cannot weaken more and reach my conservative 154 P&F target. Note that the Relative Strength panel is really relative weakness.

October 18, 2022: This morning the S&P 500 Index overtook resistance at the Median Line (purple dotted line) of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork (purple P1-P3) and the Median Line of the new Standard Pitchfork (red P1-P3). The Kijun Span (green Line) has thus far capped the rally but as can be seen as witnessed by my newly minted oscillator, upside momentum continues to rise (green arrow). The Markets Compass Daily Momentum Oscillator can be “choppy”. Best to focus on the moving averages (MAs). The shorter-term ma (red line) avoided crossing below the longer-term ma (blue line) as both track higher.

October 16, 2022: Last Thursday the EEM opened sharply lower at the beginning of the trading session but a price reversal developed and the EEM closed up +0.29% on the day. That price pivot gave birth to the newly drawn Schiff Modified Pitchfork (green P1 through P3). On Friday an attempt to follow through to that price reversal failed and the EEM closed at a new bear market low. A short-term divergence has developed in my newly minted EM Country ETF Daily Momentum Oscillator as price registered a lower low and the oscillator has temporarily held at a higher low (green dashed lines). For that divergence to become certifiable I would need to see prices to hold last Thursday’s low at 33.65 and eventually a higher high in the oscillator. This likely well be too much to accomplish without the EEM over taking Median Line resistance (green dotted line) and the Kijun Plot (solid green line).

The 20-City Average Price of Concrete Sand continued to rise this month and over the past 12 months prices are up +48.96%.

October 2, 2022: At the time of my last US Equity and Index ETF Study that I posted to my Substack Blog post the SPX Index was in the throes of a short-term counter trend rally. On that Monday the four-day rally was capped at the Kijun Span green line and the following day (September 13th) the large cap index traded off -177.72 point or -4.32% to close at 3,932.69. That price pivot and reversal at red P3 gave birth to the new short term Schiff Pitchfork (red P1 trough P3). Three days later prices violated short-term price support at the 3,902 level. That level capped rally attempts over the next three days. A week ago, last Friday the SPX fell below support afforded by the Lower Parallel of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork. For five trading sessions the SPX flirted with support at the June lows (yellow dashed line) until last Friday when the SPX Index dropped and closed below it. If you jump up and down on a trap door too many times it will splinter, and you’ll fall through. This, in concert with repeated breaks of support since the P3 price pivot, paints a continued negative technical picture.

That said, I want to bring attention to the newly minted Market’s Compass Daily Momentum Oscillator in the lower panel of the above chart. This indicator uses the same methodology that I use in the Daily Momentum Technical Condition Factor but instead of using the 30 US Index and Sector ETFS, the calculation of the new momentum oscillator uses the 24 GICS Level 2 Industry Groups and generates daily reading as opposed to a weekly reading. The Market’s Compass Daily Momentum Oscillator fell to a multi-month oversold level of 0.60 on Monday September 26th before it rebounded back above the 9-period moving but it has rolled over again. Both MACD and the Fisher Transform have yet to suggest that an oversold low is in place and that a counter trend rally will unfold but considering the condition of the three indicators a rally is certainly around the corner.

September 25, 2022: After a spirted 4-day rally (from red P2) the iShares Emerging Markets ETF turned lower at Cloud resistance two weeks ago. And over past nine trading session the EEM has been tracking sharply lower. On Friday of last week, the EEM fell -2.47% to 35.98 marking the lowest level since the January 2021 highs. In doing so it violated support at the Median Line (gold dashed line) of the longer-term Standard Pitchfork (gold P1-P3) and also the Median Line (red dashed line) of the newly drawn short-term Standard Pitchfork. As can be seen in the panel below the price chart posted above, the EEM has reached a short term oversold extreme. This does not suggest that the sell-off in the EEM has reached its terminus, only that a short- term counter trend rally could develop. That said, for that technical thesis to come to fruition I would need to see the oscillator bottom and turn up through its 5-day Exponential moving average (blue line) and the Fisher Transform turn up through it signal line.

September 23, 2022: PLEASE! Don’t try and tell me that this is not a problem! Everything that I know about Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and Median Line Analysis (aka Andrews Pitchfork) tells me that this is more than a flesh wound, It’s death by 1000 knifes. Yes, we will see a counter trend rally, but it will be a selling opportunity.

September 23, 2022: The #SPX broke support at the Lower Parallel of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork (purple P1-P3) this morning. Thus far, last ditch support at the Lower Warning Line (LWL) of the longer-term Schiff Modified Pitchfork (gold P1-P3) has slowed the sellers. That said, there is little question that the June lows will be tested and if violated (likely) my 3,570 Point and Figure price target will at the very least be met. Key resistance is at 3,900 which also marks the level where the 240-Min Kijun Span comes in (not shown here). No hint of a turn in MACD or The Fisher Transform.

September 22, 2022: The SPX held support offered at the Lower Parallel of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork (red P1-P3) at the end of today’s trading session and our Markets Compass Daily Momentum Oscillator (“MCDMO”) is very close to an oversold extreme. That said, we would need to see a turn in the MCDMO above the 5-day ma (blue line) in concert with a turn in the Fisher Transform through its signal line to confirm that a counter trend rally was unfolding. This would be an opportunity for scalpers and traders only if that scenario unfolded! We remain confident that the June lows will be tested.

September 21, 2022: A 114.50 target has been generated on the DXY Daily P&F 0.5 x 2 chart. As we have said before it has been folly to argue with the rally in the DXY considering that the EUR,GBP and JPY are probing previous lows or trading at new lows

September 20,2022: No respite in the sharp parabolic rise in Chlorine prices.

September 19, 2022 From today’s Developed Markets Country ETF Study…”On the Friday before our last published DMC ETF Study Blog the URTH price fell -3.64% and in turn, violated support offered then by the Standard Pitchfork (gold P1 through P3), the Kijun Span (solid green line). The URTH continued to track lower until the our new DM Country ETF Daily Momentum Oscillator (a daily total of the Daily momentum TCF that is tracked at the end of each week), reached an extreme oversold condition developed, giving birth to a sharp four session rally that drove prices back above the Cloud, but the rally failed before reaching the Median Line (purple dashed line) of the newly drawn Schiff Modified Pitchfork (purple P1 through P3). The nasty -4.09% selloff that followed the release of the August CPI print confirmed my suspicion that the previous kick higher was a classic bear market rally. On Friday of last week, the selloff extended and the URTH fell below the Lower Parallel of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork (solid purple line). Attention has been highlighted by some that the recovery by the end of the day produced a Hammer pattern suggesting that the URTH may have put in a bottom. Myself and another trusted, bone fide technician, Karen Peloille, question that simple analysis. End of week position squaring (her point) and Quadruple Witch (my point) are likely the reason for the end of day recovery and one should be wary of the positive Hammer thesis. The position of the Fisher Transform suggests that a period of “price digestion” or consolidation will likely follow if not an immediate continuation of the downtrend”. It looks like the former is developing.

September 6, 2022: S&P 500 Index Daily Chart…I know a lot of Pitchfork and Fibo lines. A third Lower Parallel Pitchfork break, just bearly (sorry) holding Cloud support and 61.85 Fibo support of the June rally, MACD tracking lower, no sign of a turn in the Fisher Transform. Whats to like here? Nothing except oversold short term.

September 6, 2022: SPX 240min; Failed at the bottom of the Cloud on Friday. Teetering on 61.8 Fibo support. MACD is still tracking lower. Turn in Fisher Transform rolling over. “Trouble ahead, trouble behind, Train hundred and two is on the wrong track and headed to you”. Lower Parallel in the Bears crosshairs.

August 29, 2022: Bloomberg’s Dollar Spot Index is broader measure of USD strength or weakness vs 11 currencies. The BBDXY just reversed at TDST resistance and the Upper Parallel (solid gold line) of the Schiff Pitchfork (gold P1-P3). If the Cloud and Median Line support are violated it would likely lead to a pullback to the Lower Parallel of the Pitchfork or TDST Support at 1,250.

August 27, 2022: #SPX After the failure of prices to retake the ground above the Median Line of the Standard Pitchfork (gold dashed line) and the break of support at the Kijun Plot (green line) the SPX is being drawn to Cloud support and the Lower Parallel like a moth to the flame and potentially the same fate.

August 22, 2022: Like the proverbial “A Hot Knife Through Butter”! Through the Kijun Plot and TDST support at 4,180. Certainly, looks impulsive. Where’s the Bull’s underlying bid? Next up, Cloud and price support at 4,080. Is the three-wave counter trend complete?

August 11, 2022: Shipping costs from Shanghai to LA have come down but are still elevated.

August 11, 2022: Yes, the price action has been positive and relative to the CCI Index it has in the short-term been outperforming the CCi30 Index since the July low but I will only be truly impressed if Ethereum can overtake the cluster of resistance at the Median Lines of the Schiff and Standard Pitchforks and the Kijun Plot (solid green line).

August 9, 2022: Although what we have counted as a three-wave counter trend rally in the SPX may not have fully run its course, with the reversal at the second confluence of resistance (4,180) and the non-conformation of the two momentum oscillators (purple dashed lines) the odds are growing that it has. I am sure I will be told it only matters what tomorrow’s CPI print reveals.

August 5, 2022: I am sure the USD bulls are happy to see the Lower Parallel of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork hold as support. Why this Pitchfork variation? Because it mirrors the vector of the Cloud and the Median Line acted as Lagging Line support. Now the question is, can the DXY follow through price resistance (red box) and retake the ground above the Kijun Plot (green line).

August 5, 2022: Here's the Hourly chart of the SPX Index with a Schiff Modified Pitchfork. "Volatility is not the sign of a bottom" despite an underlying bid showing up over the past few sessions. Watch support at the Lower Parallel and the Cloud!

August 4, 2022: From Today’s Weekly Speculator, “The DXY dutifully found support at the rising 50-day ma keeping the uptrend intact but there was a lack of follow through to the bounce during yesterday’s session. Although the descent is slowing MACD continues to track lower below its signal line although it remains in positive territory. We continue to consider the shorter-term moving average as key support. We now mark 107.50 as first resistance and second at the July 14th high at 109.29”.

August 2, 2022: A 240-Minute view of the Dow Jones Transportation Average. It may no be a “perfect” Dark-Cloud Cover or Engulfing Pattern, but for all intents and purposes, in my eyes it tells the same story. A potentially bearish reversal.

August 1, 2022: Stainless Steel Sheet prices jumped +1.9% month over month and +36.78% on an annual basis.

July 29, 2022: The DJ Transport Index has edged above the Upper Parallel (yellow circle) of the Weekly Standard Pitchfork (red P1-P3) but the move has been capped by price resistance (14,500). Next hurdle will be the Kijun Plot (green line).Pring’s Special K, a measure of stacked time frame momentum, is a concern

July 29, 2022: The way the S&P 500 Index barreled through the first confluence of Fibonacci resistance (4,090) is leading me to question my own Elliott wave count. The only caveat is that it is the last day of the month and also a new moon. The squeals of the shorts are deafening

July 28, 2022: RTY Follow Up. Resistance at the Upper Parallel was short lived. They will really stick it the shorts if the RTY retakes the ground above the Upper Warning Line (UWL) of Schiff Pitchfork (gold P1 through P3).

July 28, 2022: The Sweet Sixteen Index is comprised of the sixteen cryptocurrencies that the Market’s Compass tracks daily. We never get too excited when Cloud resistance is overtaken by sideways price action. What’s technically positive is the index bounced at the bottom of the Cloud and the Kijun Plot (green line) last week. MACD has been grinding higher and has entered positive territory but only reflects tepid positive price momentum. What we need is follow through. Till then, we suggest patience.

July 28, 2022: YTD return (or lack of) of the Market’s Compass Sweet Sixteen Cryptocurrencies

July 25, 2022: My preferred Elliott Wave count regarding the S&P 500 Index is that what has unfolded since the June lows is a three-wave a-b-c counter trend rally. 4,030 marks the level that a = c and at 4,145 wave c would be 1.382% of a. Watch key Fibonacci confluence of resistance of the 2022 selloff at 4,090 and 4,180. Needless to say, there is a “ton of short-term resistance” ahead. Only an impulsive move higher would negate my preferred count, suggesting that a counter trend rally of a larger degree was developing, and that the b wave is wave 2 of a larger 5 wave advance. Time and price will tell.

July 25, 2022: #Euro Thus far the Kijun Plot (green line) and the Median Line (gold dashed line) of the Schiff Pitchfork (gold P1 through P3) have capped the consolidation pattern. MACD is coming off a deep oversold condition and is tracking higher. Plenty of upside mo. Watching…

July 23, 2022: The rally off the June lows in the RTY produced a buy signal in the oscillators on the weekly chart but the small cap index has to contend with resistance at the Kijun Plot (green line) and the Upper Parallel (solid red line) of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork (red P1 through P3) Watch that resistance at 1,875 next week. The RTY edged into the daily Cloud on Thursday but has been capped by the Upper Parallel (solid gold line) of the Schiff Pitchfork (gold P1 through P3) Why the did I chose the Schiff variant of the three Pitchfork choices? It mirrors the vector of the Cloud!

July 23, 2022: The second low at price support (12,430) that was not confirmed by MACD (the oscillator did not fall through its signal line at that time) and the DAX finally caught a bid last Tuesday and punched through the Median Line of the Standard Pitchfork (red dashed line) Since then a pause to refresh?

July 23,2022: The SPDR S&P 500 ended last week challenging the Upper Warning Line (UWL) of the Schiff Pitchfork (red P1 through P3). MACD continues to track higher and is entering positive territory suggesting there may be enough upside price momentum to drive prices higher.

July 21, 2022: Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) price have fallen 18% since the April highs. Where DAP price go, Mosaic follows.

July 21, 2022: In our last note on the technical condition of the DXY in the Weekly Speculator we brought attention to the stretched condition of the USD index as reflected by the then closing price and the distance above its 50-day ma and that a pullback was likely in the cards. That day the DXY mark a new intra-day high but since then a price pullback has unfolded. MACD just confirmed the new price highs by a hair and has started to track lower but remains elevated in positive territory. We continue to mark key support at the rising 50-day ma which will soon align with price support at 105. Key resistance is at last Thursday’s high at 109.29.

July 21, 2022: Potential counter trend resistance levels. Three levels to watch that mark confluence of Fibonacci resistance, almost tagged the first level at 3,980 yesterday. Tighter confluence above at 4,090 and 4,180. Stay tuned.

July 20, 2022: Ethereum; There is a “fist full” of resistance (yellow circle) at the apex of the Upper Parallel (solid red line) of the longer-term Standard Pitchfork (red P1-P3) and the Median Line (gold dotted line) and the Median Line (gold dotted line) of newly drawn Schiff Modified Pitchfork (gold P1-P3). That said, MACD has reentered positive territory for the first time since the three- month downdraft and the Fisher Transform has exited its coil to the upside. If prices can advance through the apex of the Dueling Pitchforks (see the three-part white paper on Pitchforks in the “Work” section) and advance through TDST Resistance (1,840) and overtake the Cloud this may turn out to be much more than a minor counter trend rally and likely at the very least, it will resemble the rally in time and price that we witnessed during January though March.

July 20, 2022: Hardly an impressive follow though to yesterday’s break out above the Upper Parallel of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork. “The bottom is in bulls” should thus far be disappointed that it hasn’t turned impulsive with Cloud resistance just around the corner despite improving upside price momentum reflected by MACD.

July 20, 2022: Particle Board Underlyment pulled back from it’s ENR 20-city average record price of $1,361.59 in May and June but this month it bounced back to $1,342.38. When the lumber futures contract (chart above) sold off sharply in the third quarter of last year particle board prices responded to an extent accordingly and this year they have also acknowledged the pull back in futures but certainly not anywhere near to the comparable move in the futures.

Particle board sometimes called chip board, flake board, strand board, or wafer board are usually sold as 4x8 sheets of wood product panels and is used to sheath houses prior to the application of siding and is used often in sub-flooring. Particle board is made from dry wood particles that are sprayed or dusted with a binder resin, then bonded together with heat and pressure.

July 18, 2022: The Kijun Plot did end up rejecting another rally attempt on a closing basis and yes today’s reversal did produce a Dark Cloud Cover that will likely excite the amateur “candelistas” but in order for a Dark Cloud Cover to carry longer-term importance it must follow a significant rally. Watch the Lower Parallel (purple solid line) of the short-term Schiff Modified Pitchfork (purple P1-P2). That will certainly give us a clue as to what we have been witnessing over the past 14 trading sessions is consolidation before a move higher or overwhelming supply that continues to new lows.  

July 18, 2022: If the S&P 500 Index closes here of lower the Kijun Plot (solid green line) will have continued to cap rally attempts before the large cap index is able to mount an attempt at overtaking the Upper Parallel (solid red line) of the Standard Pitchfork (red P1-P3) and resistance at the bottom of the Cloud.

July 18,2022: Nothing yet to get excited about at the index level. Rivin and Scevola’s CCi30 Index selects the top 30 CCs by adjusted market capitalization, excluding stablecoins. The index is still trapped in the Schiff Pitchfork (gold P1-P3) although it has overtaken the Median Line (gold dotted line).

July 18, 2022: Call it what you will, impulsive, constructive, or encouraging, it certainly looks like the start of something. When a pullback unfolds, which it will, we will have a better idea by watching the depth of the of the move. It will give an idea of the “real” underlying strength.

July 17, 2022: #DAX Going nowhere slowly! The DAX Index has made very little progress over the past 12 trading days. Over that period, it did hold support at the Lower Parallel (solid red line) of the Standard Pitchfork (red P1-P3) and key price support at 12,430 but its still trapped below the Median Line (red dashed line).

July 17, 2022: At the time of our last published note (June 24th) on the short-term technical condition of the iShares MSCI World ETF (URTH) in our Substack Blog, the ETF had retaken the ground (green circle) above both the Median Line of the Standard Pitchfork (gold dashed line) and the Median Line of the new Schiff Modified Pitchfork (violet dashed line). Since then, The URTH has held support afforded by the Median Line of the Standard Pitchfork (gold dashed line) on a closing basis as prices have tracked sideways to lower. Over the past three weeks upside price momentum as measured by MACD has been muted, although it remains above its signal line. There is a cluster of price resistance $4 above Friday’s closing level. This is comprised of, first, the Kijun Plot (green line), secondly the Upper Parallels of the two Pitchforks, thirdly the bottom of the Cloud. This “ton of resistance” will weigh heavily on any second leg rally attempt.

July 14, 2022: A cross of the “line in the sand” at 3,740 would be additional technical evidence that the rally from the June lows has been nothing more then counter trend in the E-Mini. As if we need it.

July 14, 2022: The SPX Index rolled over again at a lower high on Monday before it was able to challenge its 50-day ma. There has been a lack of follow through to the initial rally from the June lows leading us to believe the short-term rally is once again counter trend. MACD is also starting roll over at a lower high and the momentum oscillator remains in negative territory. We now mark first support at 3,750 and continue to mark key support at the June 17th low at 3,636. We continue to mark first resistance at the falling 50-day ma and second at 4,150.

July 13, 2022: Prices of 8” PVC Pipe continue to drive higher, becoming parabolic.

July 13, 2022: Aside from yesterday’s Doji holding support at the Lower Warning Line (WL) of the newly drawn Schiff Pitchfork (Gold P1-P3) there is nothing technically that suggests that sell-off in the Euro has run its course. Extending the Pitchfork back in time tells us we are right to select this pitchfork variant.

July 12,2022: The SPX held the Median Line (red dashed line) of the Standard Pitchfork (red P1 through P3) last month and it held the Kijun last month but is now below it. If support at the Median gives way here are some levels to watch, 3,520, 3,210, and 2,950.

July 12, 2022: Not sure that it’s technically significant but its interesting that the SPX been coiling for the past four days between the Kijun and Tenkan Plots. Lagging Line channeling between the Lower Parallel and the Median Lines of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork (red P1 through P3) is certainly interesting.

July 12, 2022: Granted; the Dow Transport Average held TDST support (12,810) in June there is nothing else we can find that would suggest that the 50% retracement level (12,320) of the post Covid rally will not be tested.

July 12, 2022: How does one know that the Schiff is the correct Pitchfork variant to apply to the daily RTY chart? Simple, its vector is mirroring the angle of the Cloud. Of interest here is that the Kijun Plot (solid green line) of the Schiff Pitchfork (gold P1 through P3) continues to cap any follow through to the move off the lows.

July 10, 2022: Over the past three weeks the SPX has cobbled together what strikes us as just another counter trend rally, unless the large cap index is able to advance further through several levels of resistance. First, we will review the price action over the past three weeks. The most recent leg lower in the SPX discovered support on Friday June 17th at the Lower Parallel of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork (red P1 through P3). That price pivot gave birth to the new shorter term Standard Pitchfork (gold P1 through P3). A week ago last Tuesday, the Median Line (gold dashed line) of that Pitchfork and the Kijun Plot (green line) capped the first leg of the bounce (highlighted with red arrow) and a pullback unfolded. That “choppy” pullback found support at the Median Line of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork (red dashed line) and last week another leg higher unfolded. For those familiar with the Elliott Wave Theory the price action from the pivot low at P3 has the look of a Minute three wave counter trend rally, green (a)-(b)-(c). If the SPX can rally above the Upper Parallel of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork and the Kijun Plot it will likely find its terminus at the Median Line of the newly drawn Standard Pitchfork (gold dashed line) and the bottom of the Cloud. That said, If the current counter trend move becomes impulsive and overcomes these levels of resistance and the Lagging Line (blue solid line) can escape its down trend (violet dotted line) than a rally of a larger degree is unfolding suggesting a more important low is in place.

Repeatedly Finding Order and Symmetry Where Most Only Perceive Chaos

This Week ETF Technical Highlight : FXL

S&P 500 Index finds initial support at the lower edge of the cloud on Thursday afternoon on the Hourly Ichimoku chart. Cloud support is currently higher at 2466.30 on 8/1/17. Both measures of Hourly momentum failed to confirm the new price highs and are rolling over again.

November 18 2022: Too early to tell but there is a potential Daily Momentum non-conformation of the price highs at P3 similar to the set-up at the August P1 high (see MC Transports Daily Momentum lower panel). A break of key support at the Kijun Plot (green line) and the Cloud at 13.650 would confirm that the turn from the P3 high was the start of a correction of a larger degree.